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The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 94.7%. According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep the current interest rate unchanged by December is 5.3%, and the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 94.7%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 4.1%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 73.7%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 22.3%.Industry: The worry about the imbalance between supply and demand still exists, and there is limited room for alumina futures to continue to fall. Since the intraday record of 5,540 yuan/ton on December 5, the main contract price of domestic alumina futures has started to fluctuate and fall, reaching a minimum of 5,077 yuan/ton on December 12, with the cumulative maximum decline exceeding 8%. According to industry insiders, the increase of alumina registered delivery brands and the sharp drop in overseas alumina spot quotations have led to the recent decline in alumina futures prices. Although the short-term news in the market is intertwined, the imbalance between supply and demand in the alumina market has not fundamentally improved, so there is limited room for the subsequent decline of alumina futures prices. (CSI)Fitch: It is estimated that the sales growth rate of food, beverage, tobacco and consumer goods will be low in single digits in 2025.

The production and transportation capacity is continuously released. The coal supply is guaranteed this winter and next spring. In winter, the heating energy can be greatly improved. As a stabilizer of China's energy supply, coal production, storage and transportation have attracted much attention. At the 2025 National Coal Fair held recently, more than 30 enterprises signed medium-and long-term contracts for coal. Most of the medium-and long-term contracts signed this time are independently connected by the supply and demand sides, and the transaction has a high degree of marketization, which is conducive to the performance of enterprises according to the actual contract volume, and has laid a "reassuring" for coal supply this winter and next spring. The reporter learned from the China Coal Industry Association that in the first 10 months of this year, the national raw coal output above designated size was 3.89 billion tons, up 1.2% year-on-year, and the output reached the highest level in the same period in history. In terms of imports, in the first three quarters, China imported 389 million tons of coal, up 11.9% year-on-year. At the same time, coal storage is also full of confidence. According to the data, at present, the coal storage capacity of power plants nationwide is more than 200 million tons, and the average available days are more than 30 days. (Economic Daily)Turkish President meets US Secretary of State, focusing on the situation between Syria and Palestine and Israel. Turkish President Erdogan meets visiting US Secretary of State Blinken at Essenboa International Airport in Ankara, the capital, and the two sides hold closed-door talks. It is reported that the talks focused on bilateral relations, regional and international hot issues, especially the latest development of the situation in Syria. The two sides discussed how to strengthen regional cooperation, jointly support the political transition led by Syria and promote the establishment of a "responsible" and "inclusive" government. Erdogan emphasized that Turkey has always insisted on safeguarding Syria's territorial integrity and sovereign unity. Erdogan pointed out that Turkey will never compromise in the struggle against the extremist organization "Islamic State". As the only NATO country directly at war with the Islamic State, Turkey will continue to take measures to combat threats, including the PKK and its affiliated organizations, ensure national security and prevent any forces from taking advantage of the current situation in Syria. In addition, the two sides also exchanged views on the current Palestinian-Israeli situation. Erdoğ an and Blinken agreed that it is urgent to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza as soon as possible and reach an agreement on the exchange of detainees, and stressed that humanitarian assistance to Palestinians should be strengthened.China's agricultural science and technology strength ranks first in the world, China's agricultural science and technology papers rank first in the world, China's agricultural science and technology papers rank first in the world, and China's agricultural patent competitiveness index ranks first in the world for the first time ... On December 12, 2024, the China Agricultural and Rural Science and Technology Development Forum and the conference on global agricultural research hotspots and scientific and technological competitiveness achievements were held in Beijing. At the meeting, the results reports of think tanks such as "2024 China Agricultural Science and Technology Papers and Patent Global Competitiveness Analysis" were released, and a group of bright data conveyed the vigorous trend that China's agricultural science and technology strength continued to rank first in the world.

Nine stowaways' bodies were found in Tunisia, and Tunisia's national news agency reported on the 12th that its coast guard found nine stowaways' bodies in the waters near Mahdiyah province in the east.Many places support housing consumption in the form of issuing housing subsidies. Recently, many places have taken the form of issuing housing subsidies and optimizing housing provident fund policies to support housing consumption and release housing demand. For example, recently, the General Office of the Government of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region issued "Measures for Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in Guangxi", which mentioned that "optimizing the housing provident fund policy" and "financial subsidies support the reasonable demand for housing purchase". Shanxi Datong, Hubei Xiangyang, Hubei Xianning and other places have also recently launched relevant measures to support residents' rigid and improved housing demand and boost the real estate market. Zhang Bo, dean of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, said in an interview that the role of promoting housing consumption in "stabilizing the property market" is expected to continue to increase, and more policies will be introduced in the future to help stabilize the property market. (Securities Daily)A number of data show that: the distribution of rights and interests of public offerings, near the end of the year, Public Offering of Fund is increasing the distribution of rights and interests. The data shows that the new funds established in the past three months (from September 12 to December 12) have raised a total of 289.803 billion yuan, and the stock funds have raised more than half. Among the above-mentioned sub-IPO funds, 145 funds have earned more than 1% since their establishment, accounting for more than half, and most of them are opening positions quickly. As of December 11th, the revenue of 27 products exceeded 5% (the different shares were calculated separately), and the revenue of the best-performing products reached 51%. More new funds are "queuing for admission". According to the data, before the end of the year, more than 20 funds will be launched for sale, and 80% of them are equity funds. Huaxia, Fuguo, Boss and Jing Shun Great Wall all have products waiting to be issued. At the same time, the fund's self-purchase efforts have been increasing. As of December 12, this year, the net subscription amount of equity funds purchased by fund companies has reached 2.894 billion yuan, an increase of 28% over last year. (SSE)